Micron has already sold out its 2026 HBM output as a widening deficit in memory chips transfers pricing power from buyers to producers. Goldman Sachs projects the DRAM market will face a 5.0% undersupply in 2026 and a 5.9% deficit in 2027, the most severe shortage since the 4.2% gap in 2017. NAND memory will also see a 2.5% shortage in 2027, reversing a trend of oversupply in 2024 and 2025 when the industry posted deficits of negative 0.9% and negative 1.4%.
The shortage is expected to persist through 2028 as new fabrication plants from Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix do not meaningfully ramp production until between 2027 and 2029. Micron has secured $100 billion in guaranteed future revenue through 16 multi year Strategic Customer Agreements, including $22 billion in upfront cash deposits to ensure supply. These five year take-or-pay contracts allow the company to maintain high prices even if market conditions shift.
Key sources
- SUPPORT@milkroadai“HBM4 is commanding a 55% to 70% price premium over the prior generation and Micron's entire HBM output for 2026 is already sold out”x.com