● ResearchNov 8, 2026 · 17:218 sources
Anthropic's AI Progress Per Dollar Drops 63% as R&D Spending Outpaces Capability Gains
From marketbrief.now
AI;DR
Anthropic's AI progress per dollar fell 63% between the first halves of 2025 and 2026 as R&D spending outpaced capability gains, according to an analysis of METR data. METR estimated that benchmark progress on the lab's capability index has accelerated 1.9x since October 2025. The AI 2027 forecast tracker updated its estimates to place Anthropic's unreleased Model 4 six weeks ahead of its projected takeoff curve.
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- SUPPORT@kimmonismus“Progress per dollar fell 63% between the first halves of 2025 and 2026, even as annual progress nearly doubled.”x.com
- SUPPORT@ryangreenblatt“I did an estimate using my public preexisting modeling of drivers of AI progress and the public report which yielded a very rough estimate of 4.5x for how much RSI is currently accelerating AI software progress (relative to no AI automation).”x.com
- SUPPORT@tobyordoxford“But they can't confidently reject an alternative explanation: the step change you get with the larger pre-train of Mythos.”x.com
- SUPPORT@jeffladish“We did not see evidence for significant bottlenecks which would prevent further capabilities progress due to limits on algorithmic progress, training compute, experiment compute, or data in the next 12 months”x.com
- SUPPORT@ziv_ravid“We redacted a lot, and I accept that this makes it harder for others to check METR’s work. But we determined that sharing exactly what is driving the speedup isn’t the right thing to do”x.com