---
format: "aidr-story-markdown/v1"
id: "6974f2d7de3f5f6b45492d05af2f1d4f0633cf919348057fd89900f8dc617cc8"
canonical_url: "https://aidr.today/6974f2d7?lang=en"
title: "Anthropic's AI Progress Per Dollar Drops 63% as R&D Spending Outpaces Capability Gains"
lang: "en"
requested_lang: "en"
available_langs: ["en","vi"]
translation_fallback: null
fallback_fields: []
published_at: "2026-11-08T10:21:40.000Z"
category: "Research"
topics: ["anthropic","funding"]
source_urls: ["https://marketbrief.now/ai/anthropics-ai-progress-per-dollar-drops-63percent-as-randd-spending-outp-38fa59ec","https://x.com/METR_Evals/status/2118412183860351084","https://x.com/METR_Evals/status/2118412194702598339","https://x.com/kimmonismus/status/2119371475417198933","https://x.com/Sam_McCandlish/status/2118422266669371519","https://x.com/RyanGreenblatt/status/2118447235289817503","https://x.com/tobyordoxford/status/2118646665447936023","https://x.com/JeffLadish/status/2118461275168805253"]
summary: "Anthropic's AI progress per dollar fell 63% between the first halves of 2025 and 2026 as R&D spending outpaced capability gains, according to an analysis of METR data. METR estimated that benchmark progress on the lab's capability index has accelerated 1.9x since October 2025. The AI 2027 forecast tracker updated its estimates to place Anthropic's unreleased Model 4 six weeks ahead of its projected takeoff curve."
---

# Anthropic's AI Progress Per Dollar Drops 63% as R&D Spending Outpaces Capability Gains

> [Open the canonical story](<https://aidr.today/6974f2d7?lang=en>)

**Published:** 2026-11-08T10:21:40.000Z
**Category:** Research
**Topics:** anthropic, funding

## Summary

Anthropic's AI progress per dollar fell 63% between the first halves of 2025 and 2026 as R&amp;D spending outpaced capability gains, according to an analysis of METR data\. METR estimated that benchmark progress on the lab's capability index has accelerated 1\.9x since October 2025\. The AI 2027 forecast tracker updated its estimates to place Anthropic's unreleased Model 4 six weeks ahead of its projected takeoff curve\.

## Sources

- [Story source](<https://marketbrief.now/ai/anthropics-ai-progress-per-dollar-drops-63percent-as-randd-spending-outp-38fa59ec>)
- [Story source](<https://x.com/METR_Evals/status/2118412183860351084>)
- [Story source](<https://x.com/METR_Evals/status/2118412194702598339>)
- [Supporting source](<https://x.com/kimmonismus/status/2119371475417198933>)
- [Story source](<https://x.com/Sam_McCandlish/status/2118422266669371519>)
- [Supporting source](<https://x.com/RyanGreenblatt/status/2118447235289817503>)
- [Supporting source](<https://x.com/tobyordoxford/status/2118646665447936023>)
- [Supporting source](<https://x.com/JeffLadish/status/2118461275168805253>)