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canonical_url: "https://aidr.today/30b12e1b?lang=en"
title: "Microsoft publishes Nobel economist's bearish AI forecast of just 1.5% GDP growth over a decade"
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published_at: "2026-10-06T17:31:51.000Z"
category: "Research"
topics: ["microsoft","llm"]
source_urls: ["https://the-decoder.com/microsoft-publishes-nobel-economists-bearish-ai-forecast-of-just-1-5-gdp-growth-over-a-decade/"]
summary: "Microsoft published a bearish AI outlook from Nobel economist Daron Acemoglu, who predicts about 1.5 percent GDP growth over ten years and at most five percent of jobs replaced, arguing that bigger models won't move the needle without practical applications that change how work gets done."
---

# Microsoft publishes Nobel economist's bearish AI forecast of just 1\.5% GDP growth over a decade

> [Open the canonical story](<https://aidr.today/30b12e1b?lang=en>)

**Published:** 2026-10-06T17:31:51.000Z
**Category:** Research
**Topics:** microsoft, llm

## Summary

Microsoft published a bearish AI outlook from Nobel economist Daron Acemoglu, who predicts about 1\.5 percent GDP growth over ten years and at most five percent of jobs replaced, arguing that bigger models won't move the needle without practical applications that change how work gets done\.

## Sources

- [Story source](<https://the-decoder.com/microsoft-publishes-nobel-economists-bearish-ai-forecast-of-just-1-5-gdp-growth-over-a-decade/>)